6 131 NETWORK-BASED MODEL OF RISK OF SEXUAL REOFFENDING extent to which dynamic risk factors are currently active and the degree to which the environment allows for these risk factors to impact offending behavior (Thornton, 2016). Figure 6.1 Three dynamic risk factors causally related to sexual reoffending, represented according to the Propensities Model (Mann et al., 2010). Figure and legend adapted with permission from “Understanding the Risk of Sexual Reoffending in Adult Men: A Network-Based Model,” by J. W. van den Berg et al., 2023, Sexual Abuse, p. 5. Advance online publication. Copyright © 2023 by the Author(s). 6.1.2 LIMITATIONS OF THE PROPENSITIES MODEL A number of limitations of the Propensities Model, mostly concerning their incomplete account of the development and nature of the risk of sexual reoffending, have been discussed in the literature (e.g., Prentky et al., 2015; Thornton, 2016). For example, the Propensities Model assert causality of dynamic risk factors but does not provide an explanation for how these factors give rise to the risk of sexual reoffending (Prentky et al., 2015; Thornton, 2016). Also, the Propensities Model does not consider causal interrelationships among dynamic risk factors, or between risk-relevant features within such factors, despite both scientific and clinical observations indicating that psychological and behavioral factors interact with each other (Fried & Cramer 2017; Heffernan & Ward, 2019; Heffernan et al., 2019; Ward & Fortune, 2016). For example in the dynamic risk factor emotional congruence with children, which has been described as an affective and cognitive connection with children expressed through an exaggerated affiliation with childhood by people ascribing child-like characteristics to themselves and experiencing a strong non-sexual liking of children, that is involved in the initiation and maintenance of contact with children (See Figure 6.2; McPhail et al., 2013; McPhail et al., 2018). Finally, the Propensities Model provides no theoretical account of how sustained change in risk may be achieved (Thornton, 2016).
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