6 133 NETWORK-BASED MODEL OF RISK OF SEXUAL REOFFENDING 6.2.1 RISK RESULTING FROM A NETWORK OF CAUSAL INTERACTING DYNAMIC RISK FACTORS In contrast to the Propensities Model – which assume that risk-relevant cognitions, emotions, and behaviors relate to each other through latent variables – the NBM-RSR considers dynamic risk factors as meaningful constellations resulting from causally interacting risk-relevant psychological and behavioral features (see Figure 6.2 for a graphical representation of the dynamic risk factor emotional congruence with children from both perspectives). According to the NBM-RSR, these cognitions, emotions, and behaviors are risk-relevant due to their nature, persistence, and/or interrelation with other psychological or behavioral features. For instance, a sexual fantasy may be related to sexual reoffending due to its nature (e.g., children, nonconsenting others), persistent occurrence (i.e., high frequency of sexual fantasies) and/or interrelation with other psychological and behavioral features (e.g., using sexual fantasy and behavior to cope with negative emotions). From a network perspective, dynamic risk factors are theoretically causally connected with each other. When causal connections between dynamic risk factors are sufficiently strong, a self-sustaining network will develop (van den Berg et al., 2020). 6.2.2 RISK DETERMINED THROUGH THE NETWORK TOPOLOGY Within the NBM-RSR, risk of sexual reoffending is conceptualized by and understood from the topology of a self-sustaining network of causally connected dynamic risk factors. Network topology itself is determined by the density (the number of existing connections relative to the possible number), the connectivity (how various parts of a network connect to one another), and the number and strength (i.e., degree of being presence; degree of activity) of included dynamic risk factors. Increased risk of sexual reoffending is characterized by a network of more and stronger interconnected dynamic risk factors with a higher strength. A sustained change in risk of sexual reoffending occurs when activity in the network exceeds a critical point resulting in a new equilibrium, that is a new self-sustaining network of dynamic risk factors (Kossakowski, 2020; Kuznetsov, 2013; van den Berg et al., 2020; van den Berg et al., 2022). Figure 6.3 provides an example of self-sustaining networks of dynamic risk factors with distinct risk levels for sexual reoffending. 6.2.2.1 Dynamic risk factors relative influence within the network According to the NBM-RSR, the influence of dynamic risk factors on the risk of sexual reoffending cannot be solely understood from their individual direct association with future sexual offending behavior. Their impact on this risk is also determined by the number and strength of causal interrelations with other dynamic risk factors forming a self-sustaining network. Dynamic risk factors with more and stronger connections are hypothesized to have a greater influence on the risk of sexual reoffending (McNally,
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