6 137 NETWORK-BASED MODEL OF RISK OF SEXUAL REOFFENDING Thornton, 2016), and c) offers a theoretical account of how sustained change in risk might take place (Thornton, 2016). According to the NBM-RSR, dynamic risk factors are formed by interacting psychological and behavioral features, which are risk-relevant due to their nature, persistence, and/or interrelation with other psychological or behavioral characteristics. The risk of sexual reoffending in turn arises from a self-sustaining complex network of causally connected dynamic risk factors and is determined by the construction of this network (i.e., the density, connectivity, and the number and strength of included dynamic risk factors). Once the self-sustaining network is formed, variables in the external field affect not only the operation of dynamic risk factors but also the network activity. A sustained change in risk of sexual reoffending occurs when activity in the network exceeds a critical point resulting in a new self-sustaining network of dynamic risk factors. In addition to contribute to our understanding of the risk of sexual reoffending, the NBM-RSR also has clinical implications. In contrast to the Propensities Model, which may leave clinicians with the impression that all dynamic risk factors must be addressed, individually and consecutively, the NBM-RSR postulates that elucidating key dynamic risk factor(s) at the individual level will allow clinicians to specifically target those dynamic risk factor(s) which, when changed, are most likely to have an effect on other dynamic risk factors and thereby are more likely to reduce the overall probability of sexual reoffending (van den Berg et al., 2022). However, more scientific research into the theoretical framework of the NBM-RSR is needed to allow us to increase treatment effectiveness in men with a history of sexual offenses using individualized networks of dynamic risk factors. In the following section we will present several propositions and hypotheses derived from the NBM-RSR that warrant further research. 6.3.1 PROPOSITIONS AND HYPOTHESES TO BE EXAMINED The NBM-RSR offers a theoretical account of the development and nature of the risk of sexual reoffending and provides a foundation for further research on a number of propositions derived from this model. These propositions revolve around (a) risk of sexual reoffending resulting from the construction of a network of causally connected dynamic risk factors, (b) network stability, sudden changes, and critical transitions, and (c) dynamic risk factors’ relative influence on risk of sexual reoffending. 6.3.1.1 Risk resulting from network topology Meta-analyses on the predictive value of dynamic risk assessment instruments indicate that the number and strength of dynamic risk factors are predictive of the risk of sexual reoffending (Brankley et al., 2021; van den Berg et al., 2018). However, the NBM-RSR conceptualizes and understands the risk of sexual reoffending not solely from the number and strength of dynamic risk factors; the density and connectivity of the self-sustaining
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