6 141 NETWORK-BASED MODEL OF RISK OF SEXUAL REOFFENDING in the associated dynamic risk factor. Longitudinal data provides a temporal network indicating whether variation in a dynamic risk factor precedes variation in an associated dynamic risk factor in the subsequent assessment (Epskamp, van Borkulo, et al., 2018). As a result, a temporal network might contain causal information on interrelated dynamic risk factors. However, direct causal inference based on temporal networks is not justified because they contain purely statistical associations, and relationships between dynamic risk factors can still falsely appear to be related due to an unseen third variable (Borsboom et al., 2021). To control for third variables, hypotheses regarding causal relationships between dynamic risk factors can be tested in single case experimental designs (SCED; Barlow et al., 2009). SCED are aimed to test the effect of a treatment intervention using a small number of patients (typically one to three) by using repeated measurements (Krasny-Pacini & Evans, 2018). Data of the repeated measurements in turn can be obtained via experience sampling method (ESM; Kuppens & Myin-Germeys, 2022). This type of longitudinal research methodology is a structured self-report diary technique which allows to investigate changes in behavioral, psychological, and contextual features within and in interaction with the real-world context (Csikszentmihalyi & Larson, 1987; Myin-Germeys & Kuppens, 2022; Stone & Shiffman, 1994). Although perturbation by third variables can never be eliminated without Randomized Controlled Trials, as yet the combination of SCED and ESM offers the possibility of making statements regarding causal relationships between dynamic risk factors with a high degree of confidence. For instance, hypotheses on the assumed causal relationships between dynamic risk factors derived from the case formulation of an individual convicted for indecent exposure can be verified by ESM. Suppose causal links are indeed found between perceived lack of intimate sexual contact, relationship conflicts, stress, and the resulting need to expose genitals to unsuspecting strangers. SCED can then be deployed to examine whether treatment-induced improvement of social relationships skills interferes with the causal chain between these dynamic risk factors. Recent studies show that ESM can indeed be deployed to inform forensic case formulations in clinical practice (Smid et al., 2023; van den Berg et al., 2023). Although establishing causal interrelationships in dynamic risk factors is of great importance for future development of the NBM-RSR, there are some other challenges. In the next section we will describe current limitations of the NBM-RSR, while offering possible solutions for further development of this model. 6.3.3 FUTURE STEPS AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE NBM-RSR Some limitations of the NBM-RSR should be acknowledged. First, the network of dynamic risk factors contains variables which empirically have been found to have significant predictive value for sexual reoffending. However, studies on the predictive properties of dynamic risk factors generally do not take the interrelationships among these factors into account. Earlier research on networks combining dynamic risk factors
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