7 150 CHAPTER 7 in risk of sexual reoffending occurs when activity in the network exceeds a critical point resulting in a new self-sustaining network. Propositions derived from the NBM-RSR are outlined and translated into testable hypotheses. These propositions revolve around a) risk of sexual reoffending resulting from the construction of a network of causally connected dynamic risk factors, b) network stability, sudden changes, and critical transitions, and c) dynamic risk factors’ relative influence on risk of sexual reoffending. 7.3 SCIENTIFIC AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE 7.3.1 SCIENTIFIC RELEVANCE The scientific relevance of this dissertation can be found in its contribution to the theoretical understanding of (the interactions of) dynamic risk factors and their role in the risk of sexual reoffending. First, the meta-analytic results described in Chapter 2 add scientific evidence about the theoretical conceptualization of dynamic risk factors. That is, the findings support the idea that dynamic risk factors included in dynamic risk assessment instruments developed for adult male with a history of sexual offenses indeed are amendable and that their change affects the risk of sexual reoffending. These outcomes are in line with studies on change scores on dynamic risk assessment instruments designed for the general forensic population which found that change scores predict future offending (e.g., Labrecque et al., 2014; Vose et al., 2013). Second, assuming the estimated network structures of dynamic risk factors in Chapters 3 and 4 describe a pattern of mutualistic causal interactions, the results of these network analyses contribute to the further development of theories on sexual reoffending in adult men. For example, our network analyses provide support for the idea that different clusters of dynamic risk factors and pathways to reoffending exist, as has been found in earlier research in adult male sex offenders (Malamuth, 1986, 2003; Malamuth & Hald, 2016). Third, the NBM-RSR outlined in Chapter 6 provides meaningful information on how dynamic risk factors give rise to the risk of sexual reoffending and offers a theoretical account of how sustained change in risk might take place. By considering the risk of sexual reoffending as a complex network of mutual causal interrelated dynamic risk factors several testable propositions can be derived from the NBM-RSR. 7.3.2 CLINICAL RELEVANCE The results described in this dissertation can be used by scientist-practitioners in their efforts to help men with a history of sexual offenses desist future offenses. First, the metaanalytic findings in Chapter 2 provide support for the idea that dynamic risk assessment instruments developed for adult males with a history of sexual offenses are indeed a useful aid in optimizing forensic treatment. These instruments can be used to guide and evaluate treatment approaches to psychological and behavioral features related to the
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