1 22 CHAPTER 1 ABSTRACT Dynamic risk factors are psychological and behavioral characteristics whose change alters the risk of sexual reoffending in men with a history of sexual offenses. This introductory chapter describes the two most widely known approaches for understanding dynamic risk factors: the statistical perspective and the Propensities Model. Both approaches assert a causal role for dynamic risk factors but neither provides a theoretical explanation of the causal processes through which they give rise to the risk of sexual reoffending and contribute to sustained change in this risk. This chapter addresses these gaps by introducing a network approach application to dynamic risk factors. This approach considers dynamic risk factors as composite constructs consisting of a range of causally related psychological and behavioral characteristics interacting with each other and with contextual features. Studies to further the development of a network approach application to dynamic risk factors are introduced. These studies empirically 1) explore dynamic risk factors’ causal relationship with sexual reoffending through a meta-analysis on the predictive properties of (change scores of) dynamic risk assessment instruments developed for adult males with a history of sexual offenses (Chapter 2), 2) examine their interrelationships using statistical network analysis of dynamic risk factors as measured by the STABLE-2007 - which is a measure of dynamic risk factors for the treatment and supervision of adult males convicted of a sexually motivated offence (Chapter 3 and 4), and 3) investigate the extent to which a personalized network-based model on risk of sexual reoffending can inform forensic case formulations in clinical practice (Chapter 5). The network-based model of risk of sexual reoffending (NBM-RSR), which addresses several limitations and constraints of both the statistical perspective on dynamic risk factors as well as the Propensities Model is introduced in Chapter 6. This dissertation concludes with a discussion (Chapter 7) of the empirical studies and the NBM-RSR and outlines their scientific and clinical relevance, their limitations, and ends with recommendations for future research. KEYWORDS Dynamic risk factors, sexual reoffending, males with a history of sexual offenses
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