1 27 DYNAMIC RISK FACTORS defined by an association between individual differences and future criminal behavior and can be uncovered in longitudinal studies. In other words, predictors are not only associated with criminal behavior, but their variation also precedes variation in future criminal behavior. As a result, the association of predictors could contain causal information. A predictor is called a dynamic predictor when it is amendable to change and when change of the dynamic predictor is related to variation in future criminal behavior, which can be examined in multiwave longitudinal studies. The relationship between a (dynamic) predictor or correlate and criminal behavior can be spurious, meaning that the covariate may falsely appear to be related due to an unseen third variable (Andrews et al., 1990; Bonta & Andrews, 2017). Controlling for third variables may be attained through experimental research designs. According to Bonta and Andrews (2017), change in a causal covariate is found to be associated with future criminal behavior in an experimental design. According to Andrews and Bonta, due to the high level of control in this research design, causal covariates found in a randomized controlled trial leave one most confident with making statements regarding their causal influence on future criminal behavior (Bonta & Andrews, 2017; Farrington, 2013). Behavioral and psychological characteristics whose change is related to variation in future criminal behavior are referred to as dynamic predictors (Bonta and Andrews, 2017), dynamic risk factors (Bonta and Andrews, 2017; Douglas & Skeem, 2005), psychologically meaningful risk factors (Mann et al., 2010), criminogenic needs (Andrews et al., 1990), or protective factors (de Vries Robbé et al., 2015). Although there is some variation in the working definitions of these constructs, they all intent to orient and inform treatment, supervision, and rehabilitation plans (Hanson et al., 2020). For consistency reasons, in this dissertation the term dynamic risk factor is used. Table 1.1 summarizes promising and empirically supported dynamic risk factors for sexual reoffending. Traditionally, dynamic risk factors are categorized in stable dynamic and acute dynamic risk factors (Hanson & Harris, 2000a). Stable dynamic risk factors can be modified over time, for example by psychotherapy, and include personality characteristics, skill deficits, and learned behaviors (e.g., impulsivity, regulation of deviant sexual interests, social and problem-solving skills, and offense-supportive attitudes). Acute dynamic risk factors can change instantaneously (e.g., victim access, substance abuse, emotional breakdown, sexual arousal). They are supposed to related to the risk of committing a sexual offense in the short term.
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