1 30 CHAPTER 1 Child-like characteristics Boy victim Emotional congruence with children Initiation contact with children Affective connection with children Contextual trigger Static Stable dynamic Acute dynamic External Figure 1.2: Dynamic risk factor emotional congruence with children presented as a latent variable. From the Propensities Model perspective, criteria to identify a latent variable as risk-relevant include both theory and evidence (Mann et al., 2010). That is, besides empirical evidence that the variable predicts sexual reoffending, the variable a) should be considered psychologically meaningful, b) could plausibly be a cause of sexual reoffending, c) might be worth targeting in treatment or is already usually targeted in treatment, or d) is treated as plausible cause of sexual offending in criminological or social learning theories (Mann et al., 2010). However, it is precisely the notion of dynamic risk factors causal interference that leads to criticism of the Propensities Model. 1.3 GAPS IN THE CURRENT PERSPECTIVES ON DYNAMIC RISK FACTORS 1.3.1 RESEARCH GAPS REGARDING DYNAMIC RISK FACTORS’ CAUSAL ROLE Although longitudinal studies on the predictive properties of risk assessment instruments containing dynamic risk factors of adult males with a history of sexual offending increased in the last decade (Hanson et al., 2020; McGrath et al., 2011), research gaps regarding their causal relationship with sexual reoffending remain. First, current studies on the predictive properties of dynamic risk assessment instruments generally do not examine the role of change scores. Consequently, there is no certainty that change in dynamic risk factors captured by these risk assessment instruments relates to variation in the risk of sexual reoffending. Second, (multiwave) longitudinal studies on dynamic risk assessment instruments developed for adult males with a history of sexual offenses
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