1 35 DYNAMIC RISK FACTORS 1.5 AN OUTLINE OF THE CHAPTERS IN THIS DISSERTATION A theoretical model creating a strong foundation for empirically testable hypotheses is needed to further the understanding of the processes by which psychological and behavioral variables in adult male sex offenders contribute to the risk of sexual reoffending (Mann et al., 2010; Paquette & Cortoni, 2021; Prentky et al., 2015). Chapter 6 fills in this theoretical gap by the introduction of a network-based model of risk of sexual reoffending (NBM-RSR). This model addresses several limitations and constraints of the current perspectives of dynamic risk factors. Besides, the NBM-RSR offers empirically testable propositions regarding the nature and development of the risk of sexual reoffending. The development of the NBM-RSR requires however several intermediate steps. Chapter 2, as a first step, focuses on the empirical investigation of dynamic risk factors’ causal relationship with sexual reoffending. For this purpose, this chapter presents a meta-analysis on the predictive properties of (change scores of) dynamic risk assessment instruments developed for adult males with a history of sexual offenses. This meta-analysis focuses on the following research questions: 1. What are the predictive properties of dynamic risk assessment instruments developed for adult men with a history of sexual offenses? 2. What is the incremental predictive validity of these dynamic risk assessment instruments above and beyond that of static risk assessment instruments? 3. What is the predictive validity of change scores on these dynamic risk assessment instruments? Chapter 3 focuses on a second step, involving the interrelationships among dynamic risk factors. This chapter describes the application of network analysis - found previously to be a useful tool to detect and visualize the interrelationships among (sub)factors of a construct (for a review, see; Fried et al., 2017; Jones et al., 2018) - to dynamic risk factors of adult men with a history of sexual offenses. Research questions addressed in this third chapter are: 1. How and to what degree are dynamic risk factors interrelated? 2. Which dynamic risk factors play a central role within dynamic risk factor networks? 3. Which pathways can be discovered between individual dynamic risk factors and sexual and violent (including sexual contact) reoffending? Chapter 4 starts from the idea that, in order for research on the interrelatedness of dynamic risk factors to form a strong basis for the development of new treatment and intervention approaches, one would like to be as confident as possible in the (validity of the) results of the reported studies. For this purpose, this chapter describes a replication study which aims to statistically compare the networks found in the original and a new
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