3 63 NETWORK ANALYSIS DYNAMIC RISK FACTORS 3.1 INTRODUCTION The primary goal in the treatment of people with a history of sexual offenses is to help them desist from committing new offenses. To reach this goal, professionals in the forensic field mostly rely on the risk-need-responsivity (RNR) model (Andrews & Bonta, 2010; Bonta & Andrews, 2017). This model involves three core principles. First, the risk principle proposes that instead of methods of risk assessment based on professional judgment, the actuarial risk assessment instruments, which provide a probabilistic estimate of the risk of recidivism, should be used to determine treatment setting, intensity, and duration. More precisely, high-risk offenders need more intensive and extensive services, whereas low-risk offenders need minimal or no intervention to reduce recidivism risk. Second, the need principle implies that forensic treatment effectiveness increases if treatment is focused on dynamic risk factors, which are factors that are amenable to change and correlate with the risk of reoffending. Finally, the responsivity principle maintains that the effect of treatment increases if it is matched to the ability and learning style of the offender. Findings of two meta-analyses (Hanson et al., 2009; Schmucker & Lösel, 2015/2017) showed that the application of RNR principles in treatment of men with a history of sexual offenses indeed is associated with a reduction in recidivism risk, although overall, effects tend to be modest. The current study starts from the premise that to further improve the effectiveness of treatment programs developed for men with a history of sexual offenses, we need a better understanding of the role of dynamic risk factors in recidivism risk. In particular, we aim to improve the understanding of the role of dynamic risk factors by exploring the nature and strength of their interrelationships and their (direct and indirect) associations with recidivism. 3.2 DYNAMIC RISK FACTORS Dynamic risk factors can be divided into stable dynamic and acute dynamic factors. Stable dynamic risk factors can be changed or altered over time through effortful processing, for example with the use of therapy, and include personality characteristics, skill deficits, personal predilections, and learned behaviors (e.g., impulsivity, problemsolving skills, offense supportive attitudes, deviant sexual interests). Acute dynamic risk factors can change instantaneously, often as the result of situational or interpersonal factors (e.g., victim access, substance abuse, emotional collapse, sexual preoccupation) and represent a high risk of committing an offense in the near future. Acute dynamic risk factors are often considered part of risk management instead of treatment targets (Beech et al., 2003). Thornton (2002, 2013) formulated the structured risk assessment (SRA) need
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