SUMMARY This dissertation aims to further our understanding of the processes by which dynamic risk factors contribute to the risk of sexual reoffending. Increased understanding of the development and nature of this risk, may, ultimately, improve effectiveness of risk management plans, treatments, and prevention initiatives aimed to help men with a history of sexual offenses to desist future offenses. The introductory chapter discusses the two main approaches to dynamic risk factors. The statistical perspective approaches dynamic risk factors through their statistically demonstrated effects on future (sexual) reoffending. In addition, the Propensities Model conceptualizes dynamic risk factors as risk-related long-term vulnerabilities that can be measured in a variety of ways and manifest themselves when triggered by an external contextual event. Research and theoretical gaps regarding dynamic risk factors are described in the introductory chapter. First, there is an absence of systematic reviews or meta-analyses of research on the predictive properties of (change scores on) dynamic risk assessment instruments developed for adult men with a history of sexual offenses. Second, studies to examine causal relationships between dynamic risk factors and sexual reoffending are typically based on group-level data. However, interindividual (group) level data cannot easily be generalized and applied at an intraindividual (person) level. Third, both studies on the predictive propensities of dynamic risk factors and current theoretical conceptualizations tend to neglect their interrelationships. Fourth, there is no theoretical account of how dynamic risk factors might give rise to the risk of sexual offending, and how sustained change in such risks may be achieved. Fifth, current perspectives on dynamic risk factors fail to recognize that they are composite constructs of interacting psychological, behavioral, and contextual characteristics. This dissertation aims to address these described research and theoretical gaps. Chapter 2 describes the results of a meta-analysis on the predictive properties of (change) scores of dynamic risk assessment instruments developed for adult men with a history of sexual offenses. Based on the data from 52 studies (N = 13,446), it was found that dynamic risk assessment instruments have small-to-moderate predictive properties for sexual, violent (including sexual) and any reoffending. The incremental predictive validity of dynamic over static risk assessment instruments was significant but modest. Change scores significantly predicted all three types of recidivism, indicating that men with a history of offenses who showed larger positive changes (reflecting a reduction in dynamic risk scores) recidivate at lower rates than those who showed a smaller change in dynamic risk factors. Chapter 3 and 4 investigated dynamic risk factors’ interrelationship through network analysis. Data from two independent samples, the dynamic supervision project (DSP; N = 803) and the provincial corrections system of British Columbia (BC; N = 4,511) was used to estimate networks of dynamic risk factors of adult men with a history of sexual VII
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