3 75 NETWORK ANALYSIS DYNAMIC RISK FACTORS cognitive problem solving, C3 = negative emotionality/hostility; sexual self-regulation: D1 = sexual preoccupation, D2 = sex as coping, D3 = deviant sexual interests; cooperation with supervision: E1 = cooperation with supervision; sexual recidivism: sxr = sexual recidivism; and violent recidivism: vir = violent recidivism. Figure and legend adapted with permission from “The Application of Network Analysis to Dynamic Risk Factors in Adult Male Sex Offenders,” by J. W. van den Berg et al., 2020, Clinical Psychological Science, 8(3), p. 547-548. Copyright © 2020 by the Author(s). Impulsive acts had the strongest independent association with sexual recidivism and an even stronger independent association with violent (including sexual contact) recidivism. We found the highest strength centralities in both networks that included recidivism for general social rejection/loneliness and poor cognitive problem solving. Impulsive acts had a relatively high strength centrality within the network that included sexual recidivism. In turn, significant social influences, capacity for relationship stability, and recidivism had a relatively low strength centrality in both networks. 3.6.2 SHORTEST PATHS Figure 3.3 displays networks that depict the shortest paths from each dynamic risk factor to sexual and violent (including sexual contact) recidivism. For the shortest path analysis that included sexual recidivism, within the cluster of dynamic risk factors sexual preoccupation, sex as coping, deviant sexual interests, and emotional identification with children, only emotional identification with children was found to be directly connected to sexual recidivism. The other dynamic risk factors within this cluster were directly connected to general social rejection/loneliness (sex as coping, deviant sexual interests) or to impulsive acts (sexual preoccupation). Second, the cluster of the dynamic risk factors capacity for relationship stability, negative emotionality/hostility, and general social rejection/loneliness was directly connected to poor cognitive problem solving. Poor cognitive problem solving, in turn, was connected to all three clustered dynamic risk factors: cooperation with supervision, lack of concern for others, and hostility toward women. Although the shortest path that includes violent (including sexual contact) recidivism has many similarities, no direct connection to recidivism for emotional identification with children was found. Instead, this dynamic risk factor was directly connected to poor cognitive problem solving. As a result, only impulsive acts showed a direct link to violent (including sexual contact) recidivism. In addition, sexual preoccupation and significant social influences were directly connected to general social rejection/loneliness in the shortest path to violent (including sexual contact) recidivism instead of to impulsive acts, which we found for the shortest path to sexual recidivism. 3.6.3 NETWORK STABILITY To check the accuracy of the estimated networks (i.e., its sensitivity to sampling variation) and the stability of our inferences about the network structures (especially the centrality measures), we computed bootstrap samples for each network. Our centrality measure of
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