Proefschrift

offending. Findings based on both samples showed high strength centralities for dynamic risk factors general social rejection/loneliness, lack of concern for others, poor cognitive problem-solving, and impulsive acts. Nodes high in strength centrality have a relatively high number of edges with high magnitudes, indicating that they have more influence on other dynamic risk factors in the network and ultimately on (sexual) reoffending. Besides, networks estimated on both samples contained distinct communities of risk factors related to sexual self-regulation, emotionally intimate relationships, antisocial traits, and self-management. Chapter 5 explored the clinical applicability and added value of collecting, generating, and reporting personalized information regarding interrelated dynamic risk factors on an intraindividual (personal) level. For this purpose, five adult men in outpatient forensic treatment for their history of committing sexual offenses and their therapist combined traditional forensic case formulation with experience sampling method (ESM) monitoring, referred to as a blended ESM procedure. In this procedure, they collaboratively explored possible dynamic risk factors, formed hypotheses about their interrelationships, monitored them through an intensive longitudinal research methodology based on a structured self‐report diary technique (ESM), discussed the resulting reports, and integrated findings in further case formulation. Participants reported increased awareness in personal patterns of dynamic risk factors and in their possible association with the risk of sexual reoffending. Further, they did not perceive the ESM procedure as burdensome, nor did they experience daily assessments as invasive. Chapter 6 introduces the network-based model of risk of sexual reoffending (NBMRSR) as a theoretical account of the causal processes by which dynamic risk factors give rise to the risk of sexual reoffending and contribute to sustained change in this risk. The NBM-RSR considers risk of sexual reoffending to involve a self-sustaining network of causally connected dynamic risk factors. Consistent with this, an increased risk of sexual reoffending is characterized through a network that contains more and stronger interconnected dynamic risk factors with a higher strength. Sustained change in risk of sexual reoffending occurs when activity in the network exceeds a critical point resulting in a new self-sustaining network. Propositions based on the NBM-RSR are introduced and translated into testable hypotheses. These propositions revolve around (a) risk of sexual reoffending resulting from the construction of a network of causally connected dynamic risk factors, (b) network stability, sudden changes, and critical transitions, and (c) dynamic risk factors’ relative influence on risk of sexual reoffending. The NBM-RSR might be a useful tool to improve effectiveness of treatments, risk management plans, and prevention initiatives aimed to assist men with a history of sexual offenses to desist. Based on the NBM-RSR, treatment providers and program managers are more able to identify and prioritize treatment targets (i.e., those dynamic risk factors with a relatively high influence on the network and thus on recidivism risk). In addition, insights from the VIII

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