Proefschrift

NBM-RSR can contribute to improve existing or develop new dynamic risk assessment instruments. In conclusion, this dissertation presents the findings of several studies, culminating in the development of a new model, the NBM-RSR to further our understanding of the processes by which dynamic risk factors in adult men with a history of sexual offenses contribute to (sustained changes in) the risk of sexual reoffending. The NBM-RSR considers risk of sexual reoffending to involve a self-sustaining network of causally connected dynamic risk factors. According to this model, dynamic risk factors relative influence within this network and on sexual reoffending depends on the number and magnitudes of its causal connections with other dynamic risk factors. Network analysis on interindividual (group-level) data suggest that treatment and risk management strategies that focus on (a) social rejection/loneliness, (b) cognitive problem-solving skills, (c) impulsive behavior, and (d) callousness might have the greatest potential in reducing recidivism. However, these causal inferences derived from group-level data, cannot blindly be generalized to the intra-individual (person) level. Dynamic risk assessment instruments do have the potential to contribute to the selection of appropriate, more individually tailored treatment approaches (focusing on individually relevant criminogenic need factors) and can assist in the evaluation of treatment effects. A blended ESM procedure will provide most insight in the processes by which dynamic risk factors contribute to the risk of sexual reoffending on a personal level. IX

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