102 3 Results To answer why ethnic (Turkish- and Moroccan-origin) and religious (Muslim) minority voters tend to vote for DENK, we take a number of steps. In Figure 2, we first review the impact of three demographic control variables – age, gender and education – which offer little explanation of voting for DENK. In Figure 3, we present four models showing that migration background and religion indeed impact voting for DENK. We then inspect what explains the impact of migration background and religion, by adding issues to the model in Figure 4, followed by discrimination in Figure 5, and in-group favouritism in Figure 6. Lastly, we present the full model with control, issue, discrimination and ingroup favouritism variables for a subset of Muslim voters in Figure 7. Muslim in-group favouritism is shown to be by far the largest driver of voting for DENK. Figure 2. Do age, gender and education explain voting for DENK? Amongst voters with a migration background in… In Figure 3, we present impact of migration background and religion on the likelihood of voting for DENK across four models. Model 1 of Figure 3 shows that, indeed, citizens with a migration background score significantly higher on the DENK PTV score. On a scale from 0 to 10, they report a 2.00 points higher propensity to vote for DENK than citizens without a migration background. When distinguishing between countries of origin in Model 2, we see that there are large differences between voters of Surinamese descent on the one hand and voters of Turkish or Moroccan descent on the other. Although voters of Surinamese descent still score a statistically significant 0.76 points higher on the DENK PTV score than voters without a migration background, voters of Turkish or Moroccan descent score, respectively, 3.28 and 2.72 points higher than voters without a migration background. Model 3 of Figure 3 shows that Muslim voters, on average, indicate a 4.06 points higher propensity than non-religious voters to vote for DENK. Hindu voters score 1.08 points higher and Christian voters score slightly lower than non-religious voters.
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