117 4 Introduction Political party gatekeepers struggle to include Muslim politicians in their ranks: on one hand, they want to convey their commitment to diversity, knowing that many voters with egalitarian worldviews appreciate a diverse political party. On the other hand, they assume that these same voters will be put off by Muslim politicians as they are deemed to be illiberal on issues such as homosexuality (Dancygier, 2013, 2017). The striking under-representation of Muslim politicians (Aktürk and Katliarou, 2021), especially in Germany and France (2021: 393), is a possible consequence of such “dilemmas of inclusion” (Dancygier, 2017). Attitudes towards homosexuality and LGBTQAI rights are becoming increasingly central to the self-understanding of many societies. Simultaneously, homosexuality is being weaponized to discredit cultural others, particularly Muslims – a phenomenon Puar (2013, 2015) calls “homonationalism.” Homonationalism justifies Islamophobia by pointing to homophobia among Muslims. France, Germany and the Netherlands are all home to homonationalist rhetoric (Ayoub, 2019: 25; Brubaker, 2017; Kešić and Duyvendak, 2019; Marzouki et al., 2016; Rahman, 2014; Spierings, 2020a), with many of their citizens viewing homosexuality and Islam as incompatible (Akachar, 2015). Against this background, it is hardly surprising that supposed attitudes towards homosexuality inform party gatekeepers’ trade-offs when striving to include Muslim candidates on their electoral lists. Party gatekeepers base their calculations on assumptions about the electorate and assume that their supporters, with issues such as homosexuality in mind, will be put off by Muslim political candidates. But is this really the case? We know that voters have specific expectations of Muslim politicians (Arnesen et al., 2019), often borne of prevailing stereotypes. But we also know that projection plays a significant role in shaping voter perceptions (Lerman and Sadin, 2016). We do not know whether voters project their own ideas about homosexuality onto (Muslim) politicians, or whether they only project their ideas onto non-religious politicians. What shapes voter expectations of Muslim politicians’ views on homosexuality: stereotyping or projection? To answer this question, I surveyed 3,056 respondents in France, Germany, and the Netherlands. I presented hypothetical profiles of politicians in which I varied the politician’s gender, religion and migration background. I asked respondents whether they expected the politician to support or oppose same-sex couples adopting children. I also inquired about respondents’ attitudes on the issue, on a scale from 0 to 10. Voters indeed tend to stereotype Muslim politicians as being against same-sex couples adopting children. Voters also tend to project their opinions on this issue onto politicians. Interestingly, the majority of my respondents answered either 0 or 10 when asked whether they favor same-sex couples adopting children (I henceforth refer to them as “flankers,” and all those who answered between 1 and 9, as “moderates.”)
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