136 4 Conclusion What shapes voter expectations of Muslim politicians’ views on homosexuality: stereotyping or projection? Our research shows that voters with strong opinions on same-sex adoption (the majority of voters) tend to project their own views onto politicians, without distinguishing whether these politicians are Muslim or non-religious. Voters who are the most in favor of same-sex adoption also perceive themselves as the most similar to Muslims, with perceived similarity to Muslims relating to expectations amongst those who are the most in favor of same-sex adoption. However, voters with moderate views on same-sex adoption (the minority of voters) do stereotype Muslim politicians, expecting them to be less likely to support same-sex adoption, without any significant relation with perceived similarity with Muslims. In other words: flankers project and moderates stereotype. I came to these conclusions through survey experiments fielded in France, Germany and the Netherlands amongst 3,056 respondents. I used conjoint analysis, presenting my respondents with fictional profiles of politicians and asking them what policy position on homosexuality they expected Muslim and non-religious politicians to hold. Conjoint analysis has the advantage that multiple characteristics can be randomized at the same time, allowing for rich fictional yet realistic profiles including not only religion but name, gender and migration background. Against the backdrop of continued and consolidated populist/radical right politics, narratives discrediting Muslims have become a fixture of the political landscape. Homonationalism is a particularly compelling frame as it combines feelings of superiority based on firmly held liberal values and the discrediting of Muslims. It deems egalitarian worldviews hypocritical due to the incompatibility of multiculturalism and liberal individual freedoms. This juxtaposition of homophobia and Islam is particularly difficult for party gatekeepers on the left to address. They fear voters will be blinded by stereotypes of Muslims, making them uncomfortable to vote for a party with potentially homophobic representatives. This paper introduced the effects of projection and perceived similarities to the question whether stereotypes are driving voter expectations in the way party gatekeepers often assume. It may be that their assumptions are being made in the dark. I asked voters in France, Germany and the Netherlands about their expectations of Muslim politicians regarding their stances on same-sex adoption. To test the role of projection, I fielded a survey question on whether “homosexual couples are allowed to adopt children.” The distribution of responses showed 44 percent of voters fully agreeing with the statement and 13 percent fully disagreeing, with 43 percent being somewhere in the middle. The majority (57 percent) of respondents thus positioned themselves on either flank of the distribution. By examining the distribution of responses, I sought to disentangle whether voter expectations are shaped by stereotypes or projection.
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