77 2 Analysis – shared policy or identity To answer who favor in-group politicians, I systematically examine each of the preregistered hypotheses, and I supplement these analyses with additional exploratory ones. In general, voters are most likely to prefer politicians with whom they share the same policy position, instead of politicians with whom they share the same identity. However, when running subgroup-analyses, I find that some groups are more likely to engage in in-group favoritism than others. I observe in-group favoritism based on religious and migration backgrounds, but not on gender. First (H1.a), I discuss how voter and politician migration background affects voting. Second (H1.b), I examine the influence of sharing the same religious affiliation on voting decisions. Third (H1.c), I scrutinize the impact of sharing the same gender on voting. Finally (H2), I analyze how voters evaluate politicians with whom they do and do not agree. For all full model results, see appendix 6. Figure 1 (for all full model results, see appendix 6, page 20 – for sample sizes, see table 1) depicts the testing of hypothesis H1.a., which posits that respondents from racial/ethnic minority groups exhibit a preference for politicians from the same group. Using migration background as a proxy for minority status, I find no evidence to support this hypothesis. In other words, none of the voter groups with migration backgrounds displayed a significant preference for politicians from their own background over those from different backgrounds. Accordingly, I reject hypothesis H1.a. Despite the lack of support for hypothesis H1.a., several noteworthy findings emerged from the analysis. Moroccan-Dutch voters in the Netherlands are the only minority group to display a preference for politicians from their in-group, although this preference did not reach statistical significance. Similarly, German and Dutch voters without migration backgrounds were more likely to vote for politicians from their own subgroup, but this tendency, too, fell short of statistical significance. In contrast, French voters without migration backgrounds exhibited a significant preference for politicians from their own group compared to one out-group, with a 51 percent likelihood of voting for their in-group, compared to a 44 percent likelihood of voting for Turkish politicians. Finally, French voters with a migration background in NorthAfrica significantly prefer politicians from their own group (53 percent) over politicians from Sub-Saharan Africa (46 percent).
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