78 2 Figure 1. Voiting likelihood when voter and politician share the same migration background: Figure 2 (for all full model results, see appendix 6, page 21 – for sample sizes, see table 1) highlights another notable outcome. When combining all subsets of voters with and without a migration background and comparing the likelihood of voting for politicians with or without a migration background, I observe that voters with migration backgrounds exhibit a significantly higher voting likelihood for politicians without migration backgrounds (54 percent) than for politicians with (49 percent). Figure 3 (for all full model results, see appendix 6, page 22 – for sample sizes, see table 1) illustrates the results of hypothesis H1.b., which contends that Muslim respondents prefer Muslim politicians over non-religious and Christian politicians. This hypothesis receives support only in the Netherlands, where Muslim voters demonstrate a significantly higher likelihood of voting for a Muslim politician (58 percent) than for a Christian (45 percent) or non-religious politician (46 percent). In France and Germany, however, I reject this hypothesis. In France, Muslim voters exhibit nearly identical levels of support for Muslim, Christian and non-religious politicians. In Germany, Muslim voters prefer Muslim politicians (56 percent) over Christian politicians (43 percent), with non-religious politicians occupying an intermediary position between the two.
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