79 2 Figure 2. Voting likelihood by whether voter or politician have a migration background: Figure 3 also shows the voting preferences of non-religious voters in France, Germany, and the Netherlands. In France, non-religious voters exhibit no significant difference in voting likelihood between non-religious (58 percent) and Christian (58 percent) politicians, despite the strong separation of Church and State and the absence of Christian parties. However, they are significantly less likely to vote for Muslim politicians (43 percent). In Germany and the Netherlands, non-religious voters are most likely to vote for non-religious politicians (55 percent and 56 percent respectively) and least likely to vote for Muslim politicians (44 percent and 42 percent respectively), with Christian politicians occupying an intermediary position (51 percent in both countries). Additional analyses reveal that, across the three countries, non-religious voters are slightly more likely to prefer their in-group and to dislike the Muslim out-group, see appendix 4. Despite the high effect sizes observed for Muslims’ in-group preferences, the effect sizes were larger for non-religious voters, and non-significant for Muslim voters who vote for non-religious politicians. In other words, non-religious voters, rather than their Muslim counterparts, are slightly more inclined to engage in in-group favoritism.
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